Michael Surkan - Optimistic Bear

In this week’s episode we discuss why most commentators have it backwards in blaming the market downturn on the S&P US debt downgrade.  The S&P downgrade occurred BECAUSE the general economic mood is becoming more bearish instead of the reverse. The markets would have crashed anyway even if there hadn't been a downgrade.

Stocks had already been losing ground for weeks and there is ample evidence that the global economy has been slowing down. The US debt downgrade is almost irrelevant. The established trend (i.e. long before the downgrade) has been for investors to flee for the perceived safety in bonds of the largest industrial nations (i.e. Germany, US, Japan). Nothing has really changed, the process has just sped up a bit.

In the end, the US dollar is set for massive appreciation as the global economy goes into another tail-spin. Most of the world's private (and public) debt is denominated in dollars which creates unstoppable deflationary forces in an economic contraction as debtors are forced to sell whatever assets they have in order to raise the cash to repay loans. Ironically, all the debt everyone complains about is going to be the primary force that drives up the value of the dollar (and the subsequent crash in all asset prices).

We also talk about the idea that as volatility increases we can expect the unexpected with relationships between asset classes behaving in ways that no one would have imagined. The web of relationships between assets has become so convoluted with modern financial instruments and trading strategies that things will behave in surprising ways when markets are under stress.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode we talk about how the ranks of Bears are being continuously depleted. Even Tim Ellis, the creator of SeattleBubble, has now bought a home. Are the Optimistic Bear and friends the only true bears yet living? Of course, the increasing levels of bullishness simply provide MORE reason for the Optimistic Bear to stay bearish. We also discuss the limitations (and outright futility) of technical analyses and even economics for predicting the future of markets. The sizzling economies of Australia, Canada, and China, are also talked about as we ponder when these bubbles are going to burst.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode we discuss how the rash of tech IPOs and wild valuations are eerily similar to previous tech bubbles. Credit problems have only been swept under the carpet (evidenced by the fact that the US government now backs 90% of all mortgages) yet we see speculation rampant. We also talk about the value and limitations of technical analyses for investing. You don’t have to be right very often to succeed at investing. You just have to participate in the best investment opportunities and stay out of the market during the infrequent (but devastating) crashes.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this week’s episode we discuss how there isn’t a single school of economics that explains the modern phenomena of credit deflation. According to traditional economics theories the prices of goods and services will rise when the volume of money increases. However, we have seen cases in the last 30 years where prices fall even as the money supply grows. Whether you are a Keynesian, neo-classicist, Austrian or Marxist, not one of these theories can account for what has happened in Japan and is starting to occur in America. We also talk about how it feels like we are in a slow moving train wreck. The same dire economics stories dominate the news, such as the European sovereign debt issues, yet they just keep getting worse, month after month. It’s deja-vu all over again.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode we discuss the crash in the commodity markets and the amazing correlation which is occurring across almost all asset classes. Even BitCoin has been blowing another bubble. This correlation between assets, causing everything to move in lock-step, has made diversification almost impossible and created one of the riskiest investment environments in memory. We also talk about the certainty of improbable events and why it is sometimes good to panic.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode Moses Kim explains that the rising prices in commodities and precious metals show that the US will be living in an inflationary environment for a long time to come. The massive US government debt and lack of economic competitiveness further ensure that the American dollar is only going to see lower valuations in the years ahead. Deflationists (like the Optimistic Bear) are mis-reading comparisons with the 1930s and Japan’s 20 year odyssey with falling prices. Precious metals, stocks, commodities, and emerging markets are the places to invest.

That said, Moses warns that Gold could be in store for a sharp, yet brief, correction.

You can find more of Moses’ ideas at: http://expectedreturnsblog.com/

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode we discuss how recent market volatility could have a bearish portent and how markets that keep rising for long periods without a significant correction are fragile. We examine how the rising price of oil could be viewed as either bullish or bearish for the future of crude prices. When it comes to understanding bubbles, the venerable Greenspan may actually have a good point: there is no good way to tell if there is a bubble until it’s over.

With so many bearish prognosticators turning bullish (even Mish has tempered his views) the Optimistic Bear declares his willingness to stand alone (or nearly so)! While not buying into the apocalyptic view, he remains firmly in the perma-bear camp, believing that major deflation is yet in store.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode we talk about how financial hedging can actually lead to bigger risks by encouraging imprudent behavior and endowing a false sense of security. The whole AIG debacle proved you can’t always rely on insurance (which is what hedging is, after all). Try as one might, it is simply not possible to eliminate or even minimize risk. You can only succeed in changing where the risk lies. Instead of the risk of an actual crop failure the risk now is that the insurer will make good on a claim. We also debate whether the people movement revolutions sweeping through the Arab world are bullish or bearish for the global economy. It can definitely be said that there is no historic correlation between commodity prices and geo-political unrest. For just one example, oil prices have both risen and fallen (aside from short term spikes on major news) substantially during major periods of upheaval and wars in the middle east.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode Brad Rundbaken explains how commodity prices are the canary in the coal-mine pointing to the rising inflationary pressures resulting from all the stimulus and bail-outs. Changing cycles in weather patterns are also exacerbating pricing pressures on food stuffs. Conveniently, policy makers don’t include the prices of commodities in their inflation calculations, making it easy to deny that problems exist. That said, Brad urges caution in the market right now since things seem to have reached an overbought state. We close our discussion by pondering whether the internet age really has made a difference in modern mass revolutions (such as those occurring in Tunisia and Egypt) or whether popular uprisings today are just repeating the same pattern as those done long before the age of Twitter.

You can read more of Brad’s ideas here: http://trendocracy.blogspot.com/

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode Jim Hodgson explains how blogging has helped him find new meaning in life, and focused his thoughts to allow him to achieve previously unobtainable goals. Jim has went from being vastly overweight to a triathlete and outdoorsman (recently trekking up Kilimanjaro). We also discuss Jim’s concept of “organic marketing”, which seeks to pull people in who are interested rather than blast the universe with useless spam. Sharing details on the internet about yourself, or business, can go a long way to winning over customers. Not only do customers want to know about the product, but they also love to feel a connection with the people or businesses they work with.

You can check out Jim’s blog about philosophy and achieving goals here: http://jimhodgson.com

Information on organic marketing can be found here: http://hodgsonco.com NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Joel Runyon explains how he realized it was only his own fears and excuses that prevented him from achieving his dreams. Instead of using excuses for a lack of money, or time, to avoid pursuing his passions, Joel has begun training for triathlons and pursuing the career in internet marketing he always wanted. Anyone can achieve impossible things if they only try. Unfortunately, most people give up on their impossible dreams before they even start.

Sure, failure is possible (and virtually inevitable on occasion), but if we don’t even try to achieve our dreams then we will never discover that we can do things that are considered impossible.

You can check out Joel’s blog of impossible things here: http://www.joelrunyon.com/two3

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Patrick Killelea explains how the US health care reform legislation actually provides incentive for insurance providers to charge even more. Restrictions on the amount of profit that can be made make it attractive to pay more for care and treatment to ensure a higher over-all bill. This might explain why Blue Shield has increased Patrick’s insurance premiums by 73% this year alone. It’s things like this that drive a guy to the streets in protest, which is exactly what Patrick did this week.

You can check out Patrick’s latest adventures in fighting the health insurance companies as well as his excellent financial news information at: http://patrick.net/

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members): http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast. http://bit.ly/deflation101

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode Jim Haugen explains that patents are the lifeblood of any tech company and that it is always better to think about what might be patentable (or not) before the first piece of code is written. A little expert advice before a startup begins developing their product can save a lot of potential grief in the future. No one wants to be in a situation where they discover they have built a product which infringes on someone else’s intellectual property or that they are unable to protect their own ideas with patents. Jim also elaborates on why patents are not something you undertake with a do-it-yourself kit. A huge percentage of patents are rejected and It takes experience to know how to create filings that sail through the process.

You can check out more about Jim’s patent firm at: http://seattlepatentgroup.com/

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Jay Kraker, Lesa Keller and Olivier Taupin explain how the Star Performer initiative offers job candidates a tremendous opportunity to build relationships with recruiters by helping them. The Star Performer group on LinkedIn helps match recruiters with job seeking volunteers who make it their job to help them fill their openings. It doesn’t matter if the best candidate is someone else. Building relationships with recruiters is invaluable for helping job seekers ultimately find the role they want. This is a win-win program. The recruiters get a dedicated assistant who plugs their openings on LinkedIn and candidates get to build the relationships they need.

You can learn more about the Star Performer program by watching this video: http://bit.ly/staradviser

You can sign-up for the Star Performer program here: http://bit.ly/startrain1

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

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In this episode Thomas Wolter explains that starting a franchise can be a simpler and more reliable path to successful to entrepreneurship than starting your own firm from scratch. Franchises come with a proven business model and a turn-key operation (not to mention guidance) to get started. Franchises aren’t just about retail food. Thomas shares his suggestions of some great franchise options which are both inexpensive, and tailored to different expertise and personalities. There is a wide assortment of franchise opportunities, with options right for almost everyone.

You can check out Thomas' information on franchising options here: http://buyafranchiseunlimited.com/

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Matt Heinz explains that successful sales start during product development. No amount of salesmanship can make up for a product that doesn’t meet customer or market needs. It’s all about understanding your customer. Even the marketing strategies should take the target customer market into account. Social media won’t help much if you are selling to fortune 500 companies but could be highly effective dealing with teenagers.

You can find out more of Matt’s marketing ideas at: http://heinzmarketing.com/

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Alan Hall explains how factionalism and authoritarianism always increase during the negative move of bear markets. As people become more fearful they look to leaders who will protect them and gladly accept greater limits to their freedoms. Alan’s in-depth socionomics study on authoritarianism shows a revealing correlation between bear markets and authoritarian tendencies. It turns out that fear itself is something to be very afraid of.

You can read Alan’s study on authoritarianism here: http://www.socionomics.net/PDF/Authoritarianism-Free-Update.pdf

You can find out more about socionomics at http://www.socionomics.net.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

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In this episode Scott Avidon talks about how his efforts to offer a commission for a successful job referral has resulted in an abundance of interviews and job offers. Ironically, most people who contact Scott with job opportunities don’t want to be compensated, but the very act of offering a commission has gotten Scott a lot of welcome attention, even leading to an interview on CNN. Scott has a great background in creative product development and marketing but it wasn’t getting him very far in his job search until he began his unorthodox job search approach. Scott talks about how the competitive job market has made it critical for candidates be creative to stand out from the crowd.

You can check out Scott’s web site and CNN interview here: http://scottavidon.com/

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

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In this episode Bobby Bakshi explains that unless your employees are fully engaged, and inspired, by the mission of your company that they will only be living up to a fraction of their real potential. It's the mark of a true business leader that they can find ways to have each team member play to their unique strengths, and strive to achieve excellence. Luckily, these management skills can be learned and there are lots of new tools that make it easier than ever to uncover the hidden talents of your staff.

You can check out Bobby's ideas for building inspired work teams here: http://resonantinsights.com/

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

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In this episode Teresa Dahl explains how finding a good job requires a good dose of self discovery and positive attitude. If you aren't confident in yourself, or what you want, why should an employer feel good about having you on the team? Focussing on the companies, roles, and managers, that fit you well may limit the over-all options but actually increase your chances of landing a job by allowing you to put in the quality effort of networking and research needed to land a job. It even pays to be honest, telling employers what you really believe your strengths and weaknesses are. No one trusts a person who says they are perfect.

You can find out more of Teresa's ideas about careers here: http://dahlassociates.com/

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

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